2020 – House Price Forecasts

What’s in store for the next 12 months?

Welcome to our first blog post of 2020 and with the new year underway, it seems a good time to look at what the expert forecasters have predicted lies ahead for house prices.

“With much of the political uncertainty removed, we expect that the number of properties for sale will recover as more new sellers come to market, making up some of this year’s lost ground. The fundamentals remain sound with low interest rates, lenders competing to lend, high employment, and average wage growth outstripping house price growth and helping buyer affordability.”

Rightmove: + 2%

What do they say? The majority government result could pave the way for pent-up demand to be released in the spring market. Rightmove forecasts a 2% rise in price of property coming to market in 2020 as the majority government gives home movers a window of certainty for an active spring moving season. Rightmove’s property expert Miles Shipside said: “With much of the political uncertainty removed, we expect that the number of properties for sale will recover as more new sellers come to market, making up some of this year’s lost ground. The fundamentals remain sound with low interest rates, lenders competing to lend, high employment, and average wage growth outstripping house price growth and helping buyer affordability.”

Halifax: + 1-3%

“Prospects for 2020 look a bit brighter, with uncertainty in the economy falling back somewhat, transactions volumes anticipated to pick up and further price increases made possible by growth in households’ real incomes. However the shortage of homes for sale and low levels of house building will continue to support high prices, while the challenges faced by prospective buyers in raising the necessary deposits may continue to constrain demand”

What do they say? Halifax has forecast house price growth of between 1 and 3 per cent for 2020. The lender says the housing market is set to end this year in line with the lower end of its forecast for 2-4 per cent growth during 2019. It says high prices will be propped up by a shortage of homes for sale, low levels of house building and challenges facing first-time buyers.

Nationwide: – Flat

“Looking ahead, economic developments will remain the key driver of housing market trends and house prices. Much will continue to depend on how quickly uncertainty about the UK’s future trading relationships lifts as well as the outlook for global growth.

Overall, we expect the economy to continue to expand at a modest pace in 2020, with house prices remaining broadly flat over the next twelve months.”

What do they say? “Overall, we expect the economy to continue to expand at a modest pace in 2020, with house prices remaining broadly flat over the next twelve months.

RICS – + 2%

“In 2019, the RICS survey data consistently showed that the market was plagued by a shortage of stock, with average stock levels on estate agents’ books hitting a new all-time low in June.”

What do they say? There’s little change predicted for the future of the UK Housing Market, according to the latest RICS Housing Forecast. House prices are predicted to rise by 2% by year end but surveyors don’t anticipate much change in sales activity, especially in the first half of the year.

Trigg & Co Island Forecast – + 3%

In short, if you are a seller we recommend marketing your property now – demand is strong and the mood is positive. If you are planning an up market move, your onward purchase will become more expensive as the year goes on, and mortgage rates are super low enabling you to make that move with the confidence of a long term, low fixed rate.

The consensus for 2020 amongst the national experts is for a 2% rise, but we are much more positive about the prospects for Island home owners.

At Trigg & Co we are forecasting an overall island rise of 3% by the end of 2020, with some property types doing even better. Why do we forecast this? The Island market is quite unique and with it’s attractiveness as a retirement destination, the second homes and holiday lettings market, the relative affordability compared to the mainland there is every reason to believe that prices will rise by more than the national average. There remains a shortage of good quality property for sale, especially bungalows and character properties. Buyer activity and new registrations since the election have been very strong and we expect to see a busy first half to the year especially now that the immediate Brexit question has been well and truly settled.

In short, if you are a seller we recommend marketing your property now – demand is strong and the mood is positive. If you are planning an up market move, your onward purchase will become more expensive as the year goes on, and mortgage rates are super low enabling you to make that move with the confidence of a long term, low fixed rate.

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